Is Donald Trump secretly ahead… or is he toast?

That includes Nate Silver, Robert Cahaly and Doug Rivers

“Herd mentality” is by no means extra actual than throughout election season. Within the bubble of opinion pollsters, pundits and the commentariat, a protected typical knowledge normally kinds about what is going to occur — and it is usually fallacious. Reminiscences of 2016 hang-out pundits, and there’s a excessive diploma of emotion.

So what is the proof about who is going to win, and which approach is the “herd” going through? Presently the nationwide polls present Biden forward by 6-8 factors; within the battleground states that may resolve the election it’s nearer, however he’s nonetheless solidly forward. Are the polls and media narrative extra prone to be underplaying, or overplaying the probabilities of a Trump re-election? To seek out out, I spoke to a number of the world’s main consultants — in addition to one notable dissenting voice.

Nate Silver runs FiveThirtyEight, maybe probably the most well-known polling web site on the earth; he confronted a great deal of criticism after his 2016 eve-of-election mannequin gave Hillary a 71.4% likelihood of profitable the election (he’s eager to level out that this was decrease than many different fashions — the New York Occasions had her at 85%). Proper now, FiveThirtyEight offers Trump a 24% likelihood of profitable, and Biden is at 76%.

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“It’s a bizarre election as a result of it’s slightly exhausting to diagnose precisely what the traditional knowledge is,” he tells me. “There is a meme that everyone is overconfident on Biden, however the truth is… individuals are fairly cautious on Biden.”

However not everybody in Washington sees it that approach. Republicans are likely to assume that the traditional knowledge is, as soon as once more, under-rating the probabilities of a Trump victory. The pollster-of-choice for this view is Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group. He could also be a contrarian voice, however he deserves to be taken significantly: he was one of many few in 2016 to accurately name the essential Trump wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania. His polls present Trump narrowly forward, and profitable sufficient of the battleground states to safe a victory in November.

So how is it his numbers differ so dramatically?

“We predict what’s taking place is what’s technically known as the ‘social desirability bias’ — individuals give a solution to a query being requested by a dwell caller which is much less about honesty and extra about being judged positively by the individual asking the query. So when there is a candidate who is polarising that it is not politically right to say you are for, you have a tendency to offer a solution that makes you look greatest… He estimates this “shy Trump” impact is between 3-5% and he suspects it could possibly be extra, and that “dwell caller” polling is the tactic by which the impact is strongest.

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It is not completely clear what strategies Cahaly is utilizing to evaluate the extent of the impact. He says it includes a mixture of various polling strategies (much less reliance on dwell caller polls, extra digital and robocalls) and asking extra questions resembling “who do you assume nearly all of your neighbours are for?” to determine individuals’s true motivations. However the complexity of the tactic raises legit questions.

One other downside with this concept is that if such a “shy Trump” impact have been an enormous issue, you’d count on to see it most powerfully in districts which are overwhelmingly Democratic, and the place being a Trump supporter was most shameful — in extremely Democratic elements of California, for instance. Trump ought to have outperformed his polls there in 2016; however the truth is the reverse occurred. Clinton did even higher than the polls advised she would in these extremely Democratic areas, and Trump outperformed in strongly pro-Trump areas.

In concept, these polling firms that don’t use a dwell caller methodology ought to mitigate any “shy Trump” impact as a result of you aren’t speaking to an actual individual, however that’s not taking place both. Doug Rivers is Chief Scientist at YouGov, an online-only pollster that makes use of its giant panel of survey respondents:

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“A whole lot of hundreds of individuals have signed as much as take surveys and we interview them repeatedly over time. What that permits us to see is the identical individuals at totally different closing dates and whether or not they’ve modified or not. What we have seen is about 7% of the Trump voters now say they may vote for Biden moderately than Trump, and there is solely a 1% offsetting circulate within the different route. In order that’s an enormous deal… 

As Nate Silver says, “If I have been seeking to play the markets and I did not have an moral downside with doing it, I might assume the worth on Biden is very beneficial.” Doug Rivers agrees: “I believe the betting markets, that are displaying this about 50/50, are underestimating the probabilities of a Biden win.”

So is Donald Trump toast? “Not fairly,” Doug replies, “however shut – he’s browning quickly.”

Is Donald Trump secretly forward… or is he toast?

48 thoughts on “Is Donald Trump secretly ahead… or is he toast?”

  1. This didn't age well.

    I predicted Biden 306 over 3 weeks ago. 4 years ago I predicted a Trump win.

    A Superforecaster as Philip Tetlock would say.

    Trump will be mired in legal battles the rest of his life. I hope they get him for involvement with Epstein.

  2. Donald Trump has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, just how important POLITICS IS. He has also proven that POLITICAL SCIENCE IS AN OXYMORON. Robert Cahaly is trying to bring innovative concise methodology to an industry that is DEVOID OF TRUE ACCURACY.

  3. Why would anyone listen to polls that were so wrong in 2016?
    Pandemic really?? 9,014,703 cases, 229,155 deaths with a population of 331,002,651. this is not a pandemic.
    In 1918 there were over 675,000 thousand deaths and 103,200,000 population, 3 times the number of deaths with 1/3 the population.
    Again this is not a pandemic and the reason is Trump's swift reaction and response to reports on the virus, think how many lives he has saved by his actions. Hindsight is 20/20 to those that were not under investigation with Russiagate and the mistrust it can cause and leading everyone to believe the virus to be a hoax.
    So if you want to put blame on anyone, try the Media and the Democratic Party for the persecution they have put our President through for the past 4 years.
    It takes a very strong person to lead our country through such turmoil.
    Support Trump and you support America.

  4. Trump is ahead and he’s going to blow Biden away on election day and I haven’t even paid much attention to the polls. I can just sense it and I’ve been doing this for years and I haven’t been wrong yet trust me people if you vote Trump is going to win big.

  5. The Detroit cap wearing gentleman is being untruthful, he keeps touching his neck and moving his head – it's a tell that what he's saying is different to his actual thoughts.

  6. Why does Nate Silver talk like a teenage girl? Stop using “like” in, like, every other sentence, like, I beg you. He started off ok, and then the likes increased…

  7. Trump is moving his election night celebration to
    the White House….Why? Because the Narcissist knows he is going to
    lose and he does not want the press to be part of it. Where can he
    control press access? The White House. Lets see where the party is and
    if the press has tickets. If he was going to win he would want to do
    it in public and have as many witnesses as possible and also make a
    little money but a broke loser retreats to his hole

  8. So, 56% of Americans say that they are better off NOW then 4 years ago PLUS a 52% APPROVAL RATING means nothing. Ok.ok. Combined with the FACT that there is now irrefutable FACTS that BIDEN IS CORRUPT…..ok, ok. Stay in your bubble. DEFUND THE POLICE, Do away with fracking PLUS fossil fuels ending approx 10 MILLION JOBS, Biden’s cognitive decline, Trump’s increased black/latino support by DOUBLE DIGITS, ok, ok. I’m not buying that Biden is up in double digits. The Trafalgar Group, Robert Cahaly, was the ONLY major polling group that got the 2016 Trump win AND the 2018 special election in Georgia RIGHT. His polls have been able to tap the “shy” Trump voter. Being a conservative Christian in the USA these days will get you doxxed, attacked by the cancel culture AND many, many of us LIE to EVERY SINGLE MSM/known biased polls – I guarantee it. Nate Silver is also called Nate “Plastic” here in the states because he is clearly biased for the MSM & DNC – has been for years AND has been “rumored” to twist his polls, basically to interfere with the election, to encourage Democrats to vote. Didn’t work in 2016 & won’t work in 2020. The other guy, Rivers, You Gov is basically ignored for the most part because we’ve found that URLs can be TRACED this identifying the one completely the poll. Can you believe that he’s “bragging” about only having HRC leading by 6 points – SHE LOST!! All he had to mention was “CBS” and he’s totally twisting the polls to interfere in the election trying to get the Dems out more to vote. Go to SmartTrack, look at the early in-person voting, VBM – Only 16% of Democrats are left to vote on 11/03 and 41% of Republicans will be showing up which has been the case historically. YouGov is wrong 99% of the time but brags about being “close.” TRAFALGAR IS THE ONE TO WATCH. #TRUMP2020

  9. The dems are pro abortion.

    Biden is a Racist and a corrupt career politician.

    Here is the proof:

    Biden is a legendary liar:

    Obama and Biden have built the cages and used them to put ten of thousands children in those cages.

    Here is the proof:

    The democratic party is the party of Jim crow and kkk. Robert Byrd was a notoir kkk leader. He was a life long Democrat. And Byrd was the mentor of both Biden and Clinton.

    Here is the proof:

    Btw Trump was never a racist and he has endowed the white supremacist for at least 38 times. Btw his grandchildren are Jewish.

    Here is the proof:

    And Biden laptop should matters.
    If you don't know anything about it than you clearly uninformed.

    Proud boy is led by a dark skinned Latino: Enrique Tarrio.

  10. YouGov guy clearly told us what they've done. They've still included Trump's enthusiastic voters but are betting that the hate for Trump outweighs this. They also clearly have a blind spot and that's the black/Latino vote because they never considered Trump's new popularity.

  11. So Left pollsters depend on wishful thinking?? No wonder I don't believe them. They are just trying to influence the election. The ruling class won't fool the middle class forever. The middle class is better informed in spite of media. Promises made – promises kept. Old republican to Independent to Trump Republican.

  12. If those few thousands coming to Trump's rallies are all that he has, then how can he win.. Biden hides in the basement, so his supporters are likely to be in hiding..right??

  13. Well at least unherd is talking about a subject I dont see in more controlled media. Are these fellows hes interviewing controlled ss well? These days i day use your own discernment. Because in polarity things are either right or wrong and little room for grey.
    Whatever shared about polls today, surprises can happen. For me I'm following those out there trying to build a new system of governance.. One more by the people not by the controllers. Which is more intuitive or more accurate – a series of simple solutions repairing a complex broken system or a complex solution to mitigate a large series of problems that are both complex and simple or something else? In any case there is way more to life than that which we see/touch/feel. Blessings

  14. Here in left coast California Trump signs and booths are everywhere. 95% of signs and flags are pro trump. Tens of thousands showed up when Trump came here last week. You’d think trump by landslide just looking at things.

  15. Dems/Independents/Reformed GOP: If you think trump supporters are sitting idly by, you are in for a surprise. Get off your couch and go vote. VOTE BLUE for JOE BIDEN. We need to take this country back before trump runs it into the ground from insurance to COVID to the economy. Don't Assume Anything!!! Get out and Vote.<<<

  16. The early voting is in… looks like there is going to be a Trump landslide. Pollsters are just poly sci majors who couldn't do anything productive in life.

  17. The guy with the stash is obviously a Trump supporter, he looks like Hitler! The guy with the data since 08 seems data driven and objective. The Detroit hat guy seems like a leftist.

  18. Let's revisit 2016. The polls were WRONG! It's not a stretch to imagine that the party that wiretapped the president and made up the whole Russia hoax would manipulate the polls and the fake media would circulate the lies. Now we hear that Hunter and Joe Biden did illegal things in Ukraine, China ad Russia. Hmmmm. I predict a Trump victory.

  19. A good poll would be, "What do you think your neighbour is going to vote?" It avoids shameful voters and still reflects a regional accuracy. This is not my idea.

    PS I just reached minute 11 where this idea is actually mentioned!

  20. I respect Trafalgar's innovation and difference of ideas/approach on polling but not to burst anyone's bubble here, I feel people are somewhat committing a Texas Sharpshooter fallacy by cherry picking solely where Cahaly (Trafalgar) was right and everyone else was wrong while avoiding getting into the weeds and fine details that would otherwise expose a muddled picture at best. There are also several counter examples where all the other pollsters he so dismissively derides were right while he was wrong. There is nuance here and both polling methodologies have their flaws. Don't be fooled into thinking either side has a clear advantage.

    Example, he takes credit for correctly predicting the GA gubernatorial race in 2018 which is highly problematic and possibly disingenuous given that the final poll from Trafalgar on that race had Kemp at a whopping 52% and Abrams at a measly 40% and 4% undecided. Final result was Abrams at 48.8% and Kemp at 50.2%. That's a 10 point+ R house effect well outside the 2.1% margin of error and most certainly would not constitute a correct prediction. Most other polls had Kemp at 49% and Abrams at 47% and well within their margins of error compared to the final results, much closer predictions and even those that predicted an Abrams win were much closer to the final. Proof here:

    Even the Florida Gubernatorial race he brags about is alot more nuanced than "ZOMG, he got it right and all the other pollsters got it wrong". Trafalgar had DeSantis at 50% and Gillum at 47% with 2% undecided. Meaning if that poll was accurate, all 2% undecideds broke for Gillum while DeSantis lost 0.4% which is highly unlikely and unreasonable. It's more likely that the race was alot closer in reality and Trafalgar's poll was off by a bit. Final vote was DeSantis 49.6% and Gillum 49.2%, a 3 point race prediction turned into a 0.4% race. There were several other pollsters that were off by 2 to 3 points which is a similar margin of error, just in the wrong direction.

    Even with the touted Michigan 2016 prediction, there is nuance to it. Trafalgar predicted a 2 point win for Trump which was actually 0.2% margin in reality (10x the predicted winning margin and less than 10k vote difference). Where other polls off by a little more? Sure but majority of polls had also shown far more volatility in that cycle compared to the current cycle as well as movement in Trump's direction for all Michigan polls going into the election with Trump gaining 2-3 points of momentum within the last few weeks. A majority of polls also had Hilary at less 50% and a high enough % of undecideds to reasonably a predict a narrow Trump win. That the media pundits making predictions did not pick this up in the polling data does not necessarily invalidate those polls.

    All I'm saying here is take everything you hear with a grain of salt. There is no magic/secret sauce. In fact, there is even a possibility that social desirability bias cuts the other way too for left leaning voters deep in Trump country. Imagine living in a neighborhood full of Trump signs, what are the odds you would put a Biden sign up? In fact, I've seen more anecdotes about Trump voters being more upfront and unapologetic with their displays of support with regards to yard signs and MAGA gear. In other words, social desirability bias might not favor the president more in this cycle compared to the last time. It's just as plausible that some of your polling might be wrongly attributing Biden voters in deep red areas where Trump signs are visible everywhere as shy Trump voters.
    A more reasoned approach would be to find the middle point between Trafalgar and other pollsters. If Trump is +1 with Trafalgar in Michigan, he is probably down 2 points in reality. Banking your hopes on Trafalgar calling a swing state for Trump based on +1 to +3 lead in their polling would be setting yourself up to fail given that Trafalgar typically lands +3 R or more compared to reality most of the time.

    I can't knock Mr Cahaly for shaping a narrative solely focused on his shots on target while ignoring where he might have missed. It is perfectly rational since his motivations are purely to be perceived to be more reputable and accurate in the marketplace. I would simply caution people to take everything he says with a huge grain of salt. If you're taking his word on predictions where he missed the mark by almost 10 points or 2-3 points in situations where those 10 or 2 point misses could make all the difference between a Biden or Trump win, it's best to remain skeptical of any predictions. For example, he was Trump at 1-2 points ahead in Michigan, a few more points ahead in Florida, if he's off by 2-3 points which is quite reasonable to expect based on his past predictions, that invalidates those predictions as wins for the president.

  21. Ignore the polls and trolls!
    Vote too big to rig!
    Vote country over party!
    Vote too save Democracy In America!
    Track your ballot!
    🇺🇸🇺🇸Biden/Harris 2020🇺🇸🇺🇸

  22. President Trump will win. It will be up hill not because not to 🗳 for Trump because vote fraud it will months for all the votes to be counted because will drag their feet. But President Trump will have four mores years.

  23. I know it would be tossing in his own opinion, but I wish the host had offered his take on which interviewee was the most genuine. I personally found that the gentleman from Trafalgar was offering WAY too much of his own personal opinion and bias. You got a little of that from 538 and a YouGov, but far less. It makes me think that Trafalgar’s results will be FAR less reliable. If their leader’s opinions bleed over into their methodology… and early in the program, it sounded like they do (they make WAY too many inferences)… then their polling is as much a wishcast as an actual poll. Sounds like they’re massaging the data to meet their preconceived notions. There’s nothing scientific or smart about that. I’m not saying the YouGov guy will nail it (online polling is always suspect), but it certainly seems like they’re taking a much more evenhanded, unbiased approach. Trafalgar seems like they just manipulate the data to show what they want it to show. To be fair, there’s SOME evidence behind it (some research does show a minimal amount of “shy Trump voters”, which they discuss early on regarding live caller polling), but they seem to dramatically overstate it (he said 3-5% …a recent study showed 11% of Trump supporters are “shy”… that’s about 5% of the electorate; BUT, it also showed that 5+% of Biden supporters are “shy”… about 3% of the electorate… so, this is a total of only 2% of the electorate, NOT 3-5%… moreover, pollsters are doing weighting by education now to try to catch this… so, it should be less than 2%… this is a 0-2% impact, NOT a 3-5% impact as Trafalgar states).

  24. Nate Silver actually is doing 36% more online surveys to get young voters to respond. In other words, he's a partisan hack and can't make an accurate poll in his entire career.

    As for ugov survey monkey is more accurate lol.

    Hmm was Trafalgar or Nate Silver right in 2016…hmmm

  25. Before we listen to any of them: 1. What is their track record? 2. If they were wrong then, have they changed their method? 3. If not, why should we listen to them now?

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